Brazil’s regulated betting market generated BRL1.09 billion in tax revenue during October, marking a 9.4% decline from September’s total. Despite the drop, the sector has delivered BRL7.95 billion since launching on 1 January, underscoring its substantial fiscal contribution during its first year of regulation.

October Revenue Declines but Yearly Performance Remains Strong

The Federal Revenue Service reported that October’s BRL1.09 billion total fell short of September’s BRL1.21 billion.
However, cumulative figures highlight the sector’s importance to Brazil’s public finances, with betting taxes nearing the BRL8 billion milestone in just ten months.
The October dip appears to be a fluctuation rather than a structural slowdown, with overall activity remaining high.

Senate Prepares Vote to Double GGR Tax Rate

A major shift may be imminent. The Senate’s Economic Affairs Committee is set to vote on a bill that would double the GGR tax rate from 12% to 24%.
Given additional levies already applied to operators, the current effective tax burden exceeds 40%. Under the proposed change, the combined rate would rise even higher, prompting widespread industry concern.
If approved, the bill will move directly to the Chamber of Deputies unless a Senate plenary vote is requested.

Political Pressure Drives Aggressive Tax Strategy

With elections approaching, President Lula’s administration is pushing to increase gambling taxation as part of broader fiscal goals.
A previous attempt to impose a 50% tax hike through a provisional measure failed, reportedly creating political embarrassment and accelerating efforts to find alternative tax-raising mechanisms.
Analysts suggest the government sees tougher gambling taxes as politically advantageous, positioning them as a populist move against “industry billionaires”.

Industry Warnings of Market Destabilisation

Brazilian analyst Elvis Lourenço cautions that doubling the tax rate would be “insane” and could jeopardise the long-term viability of Brazil’s regulated betting market.
Operators already face one of the highest total tax burdens globally, and additional increases risk pushing consumers back to offshore platforms.
While tax revenue remains strong today, further pressure could undermine the sustainability of the regulated ecosystem the government is attempting to build.

Sources: iGaming Business