The platform is expected to go live in the first quarter of 2026 and will initially be limited to investors holding more than R$10 million in assets.

Event trading positioned as financial derivatives

Under the approval granted by the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários, B3 will offer binary-style contracts structured around “yes” or “no” outcomes. Early markets are expected to focus on macro-financial indicators such as the US dollar, Brazil’s Ibovespa index and bitcoin.

By categorising the products as financial securities, regulators are treating prediction markets as a subset of derivatives trading rather than gambling activity. This approach keeps oversight within capital markets regulation instead of Brazil’s recently launched federal sports betting framework, which is overseen by the Ministry of Finance’s Secretariat of Prizes and Bets.

B3 leadership has framed the initiative as a natural evolution of derivatives markets, reflecting growing global interest in structured event-based contracts.

Regulatory grey zones remain

Although this marks the first federally authorised prediction market in Brazil, other operators are already active in less clearly defined regulatory territory. Platforms offering futures-style event contracts on political, economic and sports outcomes have emerged in recent years, operating in what many observers describe as a grey area.

Oversight responsibility remains potentially contested between financial regulators, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance. The CVM’s decision to proceed under securities law may reduce ambiguity for B3 but does not necessarily eliminate jurisdictional debate for other operators.

Major international players active in US event markets have not yet established operations in Brazil, although some are reportedly evaluating entry.

A different trajectory from the United States

Brazil’s regulatory clarity contrasts sharply with the situation in the United States, where prediction market operators function under federal commodities oversight but face legal challenges from state gambling regulators.

In the US, disputes centre on whether sports-related event contracts constitute financial derivatives or unlawful sports betting under state law. Multiple lawsuits are ongoing, with conflicting rulings emerging from different jurisdictions.

By placing prediction markets squarely within securities law from the outset, Brazil appears to be attempting to avoid similar federal-state conflicts. Restricting participation to high-net-worth professional investors also reduces immediate consumer protection concerns that have intensified scrutiny elsewhere.

Institutional rollout expected in 2026

B3’s launch will serve as a test case for how prediction markets operate within Brazil’s regulated financial environment. If successful, the model could expand beyond professional investors in the future, potentially prompting further regulatory refinement.

For now, Brazil has positioned itself among the first major jurisdictions to formally recognise event-based trading as a financial product rather than a gambling activity, establishing a regulatory pathway that differs significantly from the US approach.
Sources: IGB